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The business of luxury gives very subtle signs of a reactivation

Bloomberg-as well as a Jaeger-LeCoultre Watch provides an indication (relatively) subtle wealth who wears it, the luxury market starts very discrete Perth signs of recovery.

It is not time to get excited too. Exports of Swiss watches declined in September for the 15th straight month, falling longer since they began keeping monthly records in 1988. But a decline is less pronounced than in each of the previous six months.

In Hong Kong the weakness persists, and exports to the region fell almost 40 percent in September. But the United States improved, and exports to the country grew for the first time since April.

The United Kingdom of the Brexit, on the other hand, is still descollando in September, with a 32% growth in imports of watches, in moments in which foreign buyers take advantage of the weakness of the pound and travel to London.

According to a report by consultants Bain and the Italian Association of Alta gamma luxury, tax-free spending has increased this year in the United Kingdom, while it has declined in Germany, France and Italy.

There are other positive signs. LVMH announced last week quarterly sales above estimates. Luxury brands believe that China is stable, while Prada has been observed even improvements in Hong Kong and Macao.

The sector also approximates the period in which will facilitate comparisons with last year.

The second half of 2016 will be compared with same period of 2015, when the Chinese buyers were reluctant to travel to Europe after the terrorist attacks in Paris. The flattering comparisons can be misleading, but are much easier to sell to the market.

For its part, a Clinton victory in the US election would also provide stability in a crucial market.

LVMH shares have already risen 27% from the low back to the vote on the Brexit. Broad group portfolio includes products for leather and fashion, but also wines, spirits and beauty products, which it is estimated will be the sector of the market that will grow again this year.

So that it would continue to benefit. Kering also might be in a good position given the incipient recovery of Gucci.

As for watches, the category of between 500 and 3,000 Swiss francs was the best-performing and augurs well for Longines, Swatch and Omega brands.

Category of between 200 and 500 Swiss francs, on the other hand, was the worst performance, which is not encouraging for the cheaper brands of Swatch.

The picture is also ambivalent to Richemont. While the decline in exports in the category of more than 3,000 Swiss francs – in which Richemont dominates – coincided broadly with the market as a whole, the watches of precious metals were counted among the worst performance.

The shares of Richemont and Swatch have declined this year, although they have recovered ground in the last month. Swatch will benefit if the recovery remains in the mid-priced segment. But Richemont has been more forceful in reducing costs, which would help it to better navigate waters that are still troubled.

In reality, there will be an immediate recovery. According to Bain and Alta gamma, the luxury market will decline 1% in 2016 that will make the year the worst since the financial crisis. Swatch and Richemont have returned to very abundant price/earnings ratios. But everything depends on even how much brightness take them to earnings by next year.

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